Whoever decides where Kathryn Bigelow will sit for tomorrow’s Oscar ceremony is in on “it.” The red carpet reporters who decide to skip interviewing Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey (producers of An Education) for a quick twenty seconds with James Cameron know “it,” as well.
There are obvious front-runners during awards season no matter what organization is holding the ceremony. You can expect surprises at the SAG Awards, where any actor who made enough last year to buy a used Dodge Neon can vote for his/her favorite candidate. You can expect the unexpected at the BAFTA’s (the British version of the Oscars), where a European dialect is sure to make any actor a voting favorite (congratulations, Colin Firth). Even the Golden Globe Awards, decided by a handful of critics and journalists, have proven to turn heads and bestow statuettes to people who go on to be left out of the Oscar race, entirely (you’re a lucky guy, Robert Downey, Jr.).
What gives you “it” at other ceremonies doesn’t mean much at the Oscars. There’s a formula to success here, and the Academy hardly ever deviates from it. The “it” is all political. It doesn’t matter if you deserve to win – do you deserve to win THIS TIME?
As they mark their ballots each year, stuffy Academy members take political inventory. Have you won before – how recently, and how many times (Meryl, Jack)? Are you overdue for an Oscar (Winslet, Freeman and Scorsese get my drift), having been nominated consistently without a win? Will you be skipped by Oscar this year because we know you’ll be back soon (Leo)? Does the Academy have to recognize you because this is probably the best work you’ll ever do (Julia Roberts, Halle Berry, Sandra Bullock…?). And why does the pity category never transfer over to Best Actor (poor Tom Cruise)?
This year Best Picture is a close race, because politics are slim in the category. It’s between James Cameron’s Avatar and Bigelow’s The Hurt Locker. If you bet a dollar on any of the other eight films in this category and got lucky, you could buy a fancy new refrigerator with your winnings. Cameron’s won in this category before, but it’s been 13 years and he doesn’t make films very often. To be quite honest, the hype that follows Avatar and the assurance it will win here is dangerous. Have we not learned our lesson in handicapping since Shakespeare in Love’s triumph over Saving Private Ryan, or the shock of Crash’s win in 2005?
Bigelow is new to this Oscar thing, and her film has been quietly gaining recognition since its release last summer. She recently won top honors at the Director’s Guild of America Awards. In 60 years, only six times has the DGA winner not gone on to collect Best Picture at the Oscars.
I’m just sayin’.
Should win: The Hurt Locker
Will win: Avatar
- Hillary Smotherman
* For predictions of Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and Director, go to http://rosebudisa.blogspot.com/2010/03/oscar-edge-who-should-win-who-will.html
