THE OSCAR EDGE. WHO SHOULD WIN. WHO WILL.

BEST ACTOR

It wasn't long ago that Javier Bardem picked up an Oscar for No Country for Old Men, and Jeff Bridges won in this category last year. Young Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network) did fabulous work portraying egocentric Facebook creator Mark Zuckerberg, but he’ll need more than Juno and Fincher's film under his belt before a win in this category. James Franco is very lucky that his sky-screaming shenanigans brought him this far.

Colin Firth has this event locked. Earning extra points for being nominated in the same place last year with A Single Man, Firth is beyond due for recognition by the Academy and has won every major award this season.

Should win: Colin Firth

Will win: Colin Firth

BEST ACTRESS

Some people just can’t star in a movie anymore without Academy recognition – but Kidman won’t win for Rabbit Hole. Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone) and Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine) get nods here for their work in indie films that strengthen their resumes for future voting seasons. Poor Annette Bening can’t seem to get nominated in a year where the award doesn’t belong to someone else, but at least she won’t be losing to Hillary Swank for a third time.

It’s Portman’s year. Aronofsky drama plus real-life pregnancy and engagement equals Oscar.

Should win: Natalie Portman

Will win: Natalie Portman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Pity the fool that missed Christian Bale’s performance as crack-addicted boxing trainer Dicky Ward in The Fighter. His embodiment of the irresponsible brother incarnate is just the highlight of a young career already brimming with strong roles (The Machinist, American Psycho). Geoffrey Rush turns in an astounding performance as speech tutor Lionel Logue in The King’s Speech, but it’s not likely he’ll surpass Bale this year.

Should win: Christian Bale

Will win: Christian Bale

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This is always the Academy’s “wild card” category. Past wins have delivered statuettes to true underdogs, some of whose careers all but halted after having won (Mira Sorvino, Marissa Tomei, Jennifer Hudson… the list goes on).

Jacki Weaver and Hallee Steinfeld phone in their nominations tonight. After years of tainting herself with oddities in Tim Burton films, Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech) will need to show more consistency to garner an award. The Academy loves Amy Adams (previously nominated for Junebug and Doubt). Too bad that the meatier supporting role in her film (The Fighter) belongs to Melissa Leo. Her portrayal of an overbearing mother/boxing manager makes Adams pale in comparison.

Should win: Melissa Leo

Will win: Melissa Leo

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Good job Joel and Ethan Cohen (as always) with True Grit. And Anne Rosellini did a masterful job getting into the minds of every sordid character in Winter’s Bone. Thank you, John Lasseter and Andrew Stanton for collectively bringing us smartly animated whoppers like Finding Nemo, Monsters Inc, and WALL-E (this year they get nominated with Toy Story 3). Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy adapted the material for 127 Hours and left us with nothing but James Franco hallucinating for an hour and a half; perhaps it was slim pickings for that fifth slot.

The Social Network is one of the most astute adaptations of material (in any form) in recent memory. Thank you for leaving television, Aaron Sorkin.

Should win: Aaron Sorkin

Will win: Aaron Sorkin

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Inception was a selfish display of pushing screenwriting into the realm of what-can-digital-effects-do-with-this-script territory. The Fighter's family saga is a worthy candidate, and The Kids are All Right does a nice job of blurring social family lines.

But the Oscar goes to David Seidler for undertaking what could have been a humdrum period piece and creating a mammoth drama about a simple stutter.

Should win: The King’s Speech

Will win: The King’s Speech

BEST DIRECTOR

There’s no stopping Fincher here. Known for pushing the cinematic envelope with films like Seven and Fight Club, 2008’s achievement with The Curious Case of Benjamin Button solidified him as an Oscar force with which to be reckoned. And The Social Network is his finest work by far, so far.

Should win: David Fincher

Will win: David Fincher

BEST PICTURE

It’s a close race between David Fincher’s The Social Network and Tom Hooper’s The King’s Speech. When the Best Picture winner actually deserves to win - not when it wins because Martin Scorsese or the Cohen brothers can’t be slighted one more time (The Departed, No Country for Old Men), the Academy likes to award current, groundbreaking, boundary-pushing films (note Slumdog Millionaire; 2009, and Crash; 2006). The Social Network should be a shoe in, right?

Wrong. Voters haven’t awarded a British period drama since 1998’s Shakespeare in Love, and Hooper just upset Fincher at the DGA’s for his achievement in directing. Only six times has the DGA winner not gone on to win the Oscar for Best Picture.

Should win: The Social Network

Will win: The King’s Speech

THE OSCAR EDGE - WHO SHOULD WIN. WHO WILL.

BEST ACTOR

With his 5^th nomination, Jeff Bridges’ work has been recognized by the Academy for nearly 40 years. Solid turns in The Contender and Seabiscuit went unrewarded, but Bridges’ portrayal as a has-been country singer makes him a sure bet in this category. Freeman and Clooney were both recently honored with Oscars, in 2004 and 2005, respectively. International box office totals for (the Cohen brothers’) A Single Man came in at an abysmal $13 million – less people saw Firth’s performance in that film than adults waited in line to see New Moon. Unless The Hurt Locker upsets in several categories tomorrow night, Renner’s breakthrough role will sit second to Bridges.

Should win: Bridges

Will win: Bridges

BEST ACTRESS

I love it when actresses win Razzie’s (Worst Picture/Actor Awards) in the same year they’re nominated for Oscars. If I shut my eyes tight enough, I can still remember Halle Berry accepting her Razzie with her Best Actress Oscar in tow. We’ve watched Sandra Bullock portray the lovable girl-next-door repeatedly since 1994’s Speed, and this is as good as she gets, kids. Although Streep has been nominated a whopping 16 times (more than any other actor), she hasn’t gotten up to the podium to accept an Oscar since 1983’s Sophie’s Choice. Mirren won in this category four years ago with The Queen and won’t be honored for her work in this little-seen film. Mulligan’s British hailing won’t help her here, as it carried her to a Best Actress BAFTA Award, and Sidibe’s heartbreaking turn as a pregnant, illiterate teen has already won her all the awards she’ll see this season.

Should win: Streep

Will win: Bullock

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Every once in a while someone seemingly plucked from obscurity and placed into the open arms of Hollywood wins an Academy Award because they’re just that good (Marion Cotillard, Roberto Benigni). Give Christoph Waltz an Oscar. I haven’t loved to hate a villain as much as his Col. Hans Landa since Hopkins’ Hannibal Lecter. No one will touch Waltz – not Damon’s inspiring rugby captain, Plummer’s Tolstoy, Harrelson’s alcoholic nor even Tucci’s homicidal turn in The Lovely Bones.

Should win: Waltz

Will win: Waltz

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

History has proven favorites in this category shockingly remain in their seats as unlikely winners take the stage. Kate Hudson had swept all other ceremonies until Marcia Gay Harden claimed the statuette for Pollock in 2000. This is also the “not-guaranteed-to-solidify-your-career-Oscar” – remember Jennifer Hudson? What about Mira Sorvino? Didn’t think so. So when Mo’Nique is celebrating the culmination of a near perfect awards season with her Oscar tomorrow night, we will hope that her luck continues after Precious. Penelope just won here last year with Vicki Christina Barcelona, and is lucky to be nominated in what I would label an almost total disaster for director Rob Marshall. Critic’s darling Gyllenhaal wasn’t nominated for a single other award this season for Crazy Heart, and won’t win here. Kendrick’s scene-stealing wasn’t enough for her to gain awards momentum in 2009. Farmiga’s ballsy traveler in Up in the Air was the stand-out performance in a film filled with poignant turns by major Hollywood heavy hitters, but it’ll be impossible for her to overcome the Mo’Nique train, especially since this is the only award that Oscar will bestow on Precious.

Should win: Farmiga

Will win: Mo’Nique

BEST DIRECTOR

Like Best Picture, this field belongs to Cameron and Bigelow. Cameron’s achievement isn’t easily ignored; Avatar is a spectacle to behold in terms of technical advancements in filmmaking. It has become more than just a film, but a phenomenon reaching far beyond blockbuster epic expectations. And that could come back to bite Avatar on its nicely shaped, blue-skinned behind. Mr. Tarentino hasn’t won an Oscar for directing, but this is unfortunately not his year to rise above Cameron’s massive undertaking or Bigelow’s supreme storytelling. Reitman’s turn will come soon, I’m sure. With 2007’s Juno and this year’s Up in the Air, we can count on this 33 year-old to deliver again. Lee Daniels is lucky to be included here, edging out the Oscar-winning Cohen brothers for a nomination. Bigelow’s slice of life war portrait of American soldiers in Iraq was the most poignant 2 hours of film I saw last year. Be watchful for Avatar-weary Academy members who may feel inclined to vote against the grain.

Should win: Bigelow

Will win: Cameron

- Hillary Smotherman

*For Best Picture Prediction, go to http://rosebudisa.blogspot.com/2010/03/dont-take-it-personally.html

DON’T TAKE IT PERSONALLY

Whoever decides where Kathryn Bigelow will sit for tomorrow’s Oscar ceremony is in on “it.” The red carpet reporters who decide to skip interviewing Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey (producers of An Education) for a quick twenty seconds with James Cameron know “it,” as well.

There are obvious front-runners during awards season no matter what organization is holding the ceremony. You can expect surprises at the SAG Awards, where any actor who made enough last year to buy a used Dodge Neon can vote for his/her favorite candidate. You can expect the unexpected at the BAFTA’s (the British version of the Oscars), where a European dialect is sure to make any actor a voting favorite (congratulations, Colin Firth). Even the Golden Globe Awards, decided by a handful of critics and journalists, have proven to turn heads and bestow statuettes to people who go on to be left out of the Oscar race, entirely (you’re a lucky guy, Robert Downey, Jr.).

What gives you “it” at other ceremonies doesn’t mean much at the Oscars. There’s a formula to success here, and the Academy hardly ever deviates from it. The “it” is all political. It doesn’t matter if you deserve to win – do you deserve to win THIS TIME?

As they mark their ballots each year, stuffy Academy members take political inventory. Have you won before – how recently, and how many times (Meryl, Jack)? Are you overdue for an Oscar (Winslet, Freeman and Scorsese get my drift), having been nominated consistently without a win? Will you be skipped by Oscar this year because we know you’ll be back soon (Leo)? Does the Academy have to recognize you because this is probably the best work you’ll ever do (Julia Roberts, Halle Berry, Sandra Bullock…?). And why does the pity category never transfer over to Best Actor (poor Tom Cruise)?

This year Best Picture is a close race, because politics are slim in the category. It’s between James Cameron’s Avatar and Bigelow’s The Hurt Locker. If you bet a dollar on any of the other eight films in this category and got lucky, you could buy a fancy new refrigerator with your winnings. Cameron’s won in this category before, but it’s been 13 years and he doesn’t make films very often. To be quite honest, the hype that follows Avatar and the assurance it will win here is dangerous. Have we not learned our lesson in handicapping since Shakespeare in Love’s triumph over Saving Private Ryan, or the shock of Crash’s win in 2005?

Bigelow is new to this Oscar thing, and her film has been quietly gaining recognition since its release last summer. She recently won top honors at the Director’s Guild of America Awards. In 60 years, only six times has the DGA winner not gone on to collect Best Picture at the Oscars.

I’m just sayin’.

Should win: The Hurt Locker

Will win: Avatar

- Hillary Smotherman

* For predictions of Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and Director, go to http://rosebudisa.blogspot.com/2010/03/oscar-edge-who-should-win-who-will.html

A CYNCIAL DEPARTURE

You want to hate the characters in this film. Ryan Bingham (George Clooney) flies over 350,000 miles a year firing employees at companies whose bosses don’t “have the balls” to sack their own. He’s a work-a-holic loner. The most important things to Ryan: his American Airlines concierge key card, and accruing enough miles to get his name on the side of a plane.

Up in the Air is a comedy that takes itself seriously. It’s a drama that laughs at each uncomfortable situation in which its characters find themselves. Ryan’s boss (played by the always comically flawless Jason Bateman) excitedly embrace’s America’s economic ruin, telling his employees, “this is our moment.” But there’s a ruthlessness Ryan lacks that endears him to us.

A young, recent college graduate named Natalie (Anna Kendrick) threatens his way of life by introducing a more efficient way of letting people go – via internet ichat. When Ryan’s boss orders him to show Natalie the ropes of firing people on the road, the pair jet off across the country. Forced to endure each other’s company, the eager girl full of hope and the jaded cynic learn lessons from each other in ways only opposites could. The characters in this film are so detached from feeling, so isolated – we want them to change.

Ryan’s biggest threat for change comes in the form of a beautiful, feisty female traveler named Alex (thank you, Vera Farmiga). In a film brimming with excellent performances, Farmiga’s is the stellar, stand-out one of them all. The maturity Farmiga brings to Alex is seamless - witty and intelligent. She and Ryan bond over their shared knowledge of rental car companies and trade stories of life on the road, beginning a one-night stand hotel relationship whenever their schedules land them in nearby cities. The two are dangerously similar – unattached incarnate. Perfect for each other.

The honesty of the movie can be found in scenes where we get to see the characters exploring unchartered territory within themselves: Natalie getting drunk and solving her problems with sex, Alex describing her (less-than-perfect) version of the perfect man over airport drinks, Ryan attempting to talk his future brother-in-law out of cold feet on his wedding day. And when the scenes are honest, Up in the Air is a fine example of heartwarming and clever, cynical comedy.

I’d be remiss to ignore giving major kudos to this film’s director. Jason Reitman (who brought us 2007’s Juno) is part of a very small, elite group of writer-directors who have overcome their famous family label to gain respect for their work. Reitman again proves himself worthy of acclaim with this piece, candidly illustrating the beauty in altogether uncomfortable, awkward situations.

This isn’t a movie that crescendos from beginning to end. There is a lack of tension at the end of the film that is settling. Reitman’s intelligent storytelling assumes that his audience can make up its own mind as to whether these characters have changed or not. I have to say that I love films where the catharsis is implied. For characters whose professional lives could be altogether defined as “successful,” how much of what really matters to them is “up in the air?” You’re intelligent. You decide.

-Hillary Smotherman