THE OSCAR EDGE. WHO SHOULD WIN. WHO WILL.

BEST ACTOR

It wasn't long ago that Javier Bardem picked up an Oscar for No Country for Old Men, and Jeff Bridges won in this category last year. Young Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network) did fabulous work portraying egocentric Facebook creator Mark Zuckerberg, but he’ll need more than Juno and Fincher's film under his belt before a win in this category. James Franco is very lucky that his sky-screaming shenanigans brought him this far.

Colin Firth has this event locked. Earning extra points for being nominated in the same place last year with A Single Man, Firth is beyond due for recognition by the Academy and has won every major award this season.

Should win: Colin Firth

Will win: Colin Firth

BEST ACTRESS

Some people just can’t star in a movie anymore without Academy recognition – but Kidman won’t win for Rabbit Hole. Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone) and Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine) get nods here for their work in indie films that strengthen their resumes for future voting seasons. Poor Annette Bening can’t seem to get nominated in a year where the award doesn’t belong to someone else, but at least she won’t be losing to Hillary Swank for a third time.

It’s Portman’s year. Aronofsky drama plus real-life pregnancy and engagement equals Oscar.

Should win: Natalie Portman

Will win: Natalie Portman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Pity the fool that missed Christian Bale’s performance as crack-addicted boxing trainer Dicky Ward in The Fighter. His embodiment of the irresponsible brother incarnate is just the highlight of a young career already brimming with strong roles (The Machinist, American Psycho). Geoffrey Rush turns in an astounding performance as speech tutor Lionel Logue in The King’s Speech, but it’s not likely he’ll surpass Bale this year.

Should win: Christian Bale

Will win: Christian Bale

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This is always the Academy’s “wild card” category. Past wins have delivered statuettes to true underdogs, some of whose careers all but halted after having won (Mira Sorvino, Marissa Tomei, Jennifer Hudson… the list goes on).

Jacki Weaver and Hallee Steinfeld phone in their nominations tonight. After years of tainting herself with oddities in Tim Burton films, Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech) will need to show more consistency to garner an award. The Academy loves Amy Adams (previously nominated for Junebug and Doubt). Too bad that the meatier supporting role in her film (The Fighter) belongs to Melissa Leo. Her portrayal of an overbearing mother/boxing manager makes Adams pale in comparison.

Should win: Melissa Leo

Will win: Melissa Leo

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Good job Joel and Ethan Cohen (as always) with True Grit. And Anne Rosellini did a masterful job getting into the minds of every sordid character in Winter’s Bone. Thank you, John Lasseter and Andrew Stanton for collectively bringing us smartly animated whoppers like Finding Nemo, Monsters Inc, and WALL-E (this year they get nominated with Toy Story 3). Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy adapted the material for 127 Hours and left us with nothing but James Franco hallucinating for an hour and a half; perhaps it was slim pickings for that fifth slot.

The Social Network is one of the most astute adaptations of material (in any form) in recent memory. Thank you for leaving television, Aaron Sorkin.

Should win: Aaron Sorkin

Will win: Aaron Sorkin

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Inception was a selfish display of pushing screenwriting into the realm of what-can-digital-effects-do-with-this-script territory. The Fighter's family saga is a worthy candidate, and The Kids are All Right does a nice job of blurring social family lines.

But the Oscar goes to David Seidler for undertaking what could have been a humdrum period piece and creating a mammoth drama about a simple stutter.

Should win: The King’s Speech

Will win: The King’s Speech

BEST DIRECTOR

There’s no stopping Fincher here. Known for pushing the cinematic envelope with films like Seven and Fight Club, 2008’s achievement with The Curious Case of Benjamin Button solidified him as an Oscar force with which to be reckoned. And The Social Network is his finest work by far, so far.

Should win: David Fincher

Will win: David Fincher

BEST PICTURE

It’s a close race between David Fincher’s The Social Network and Tom Hooper’s The King’s Speech. When the Best Picture winner actually deserves to win - not when it wins because Martin Scorsese or the Cohen brothers can’t be slighted one more time (The Departed, No Country for Old Men), the Academy likes to award current, groundbreaking, boundary-pushing films (note Slumdog Millionaire; 2009, and Crash; 2006). The Social Network should be a shoe in, right?

Wrong. Voters haven’t awarded a British period drama since 1998’s Shakespeare in Love, and Hooper just upset Fincher at the DGA’s for his achievement in directing. Only six times has the DGA winner not gone on to win the Oscar for Best Picture.

Should win: The Social Network

Will win: The King’s Speech

M-M-M-MESMERIZING

Everyone has an Achilles heel. That one, inescapable handicap that prevents us from achieving “to be or not to be” status. In 1925, King George VI employed a man who promised to remedy the liability that threatened him most - his stutter.

Tom Hooper directs The King’s Speech like a finely orchestrated symphony. Characters lean on each other like bows on a fiddle; they complement like horn and trumpet. And no instruments in this film sound better together than Colin Firth’s Albert (the King), and speech therapist Lionel Logue (Geoffrey Rush).

After countless doctors try every humiliating exercise imaginable to cure his stammer (including filling his mouth with marbles), Albert’s had enough with therapy. But Logue’s approach is psychological – he treats “Bertie” like a friend. What begins for Bertie as a cautious and guarded, “if we were equals, I wouldn’t be here” affiliation with Lionel, unfolds as a partnership masterful and symbiotic.

To see Albert achieve a syllable sans superfluous hesitation is like watching a one-legged climber reach the peak of Everest. It is thrilling to witness Firth’s emotional breakdowns and breakthroughs. Scenes with Albert’s wife, played with resolute brilliance by Helena Bonham Carter, are poignant and raw. What a treat to see her back in British film mode, and out of the odd grasp that is (husband) Tim Burton’s work.

Fantastic supporting turns by Guy Pierce (the King’s brother) and Michael Gambon (King George V) create strong illustrations as to why Bertie would be swimming in self-doubt. Lionel unveils the science of Albert’s stutter, which proves to be a fear-based peripheral reaction to an inward lack of conviction.

But behind Lionel’s closed doors, the King is safe. And as breathtaking as it is to watch Firth’s character triumph and fail with each word he utters, it is Rush’s performance as a wannabe actor-turned speech guru that emerges as the glue to Hooper’s so eloquent mold.

Left alone in a room to conquer a microphone and broadcast a profoundly important nine-minute speech, Firth and Rush deliver one of the most simply riveting scenes in recent film memory. With Logue (quite literally) conducting the King’s every breath, the world fixedly gathers around their radio, straining to hear every might-be-annunciated word. And so do we.


- Hillary Smotherman