BEST ACTOR
It wasn't long ago that Javier Bardem picked up an Oscar for No Country for Old Men, and Jeff Bridges won in this category last year. Young Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network) did fabulous work portraying egocentric Facebook creator Mark Zuckerberg, but he’ll need more than Juno and Fincher's film under his belt before a win in this category. James Franco is very lucky that his sky-screaming shenanigans brought him this far.
Colin Firth has this event locked. Earning extra points for being nominated in the same place last year with A Single Man, Firth is beyond due for recognition by the Academy and has won every major award this season.
Should win: Colin Firth
Will win: Colin Firth
BEST ACTRESS
Some people just can’t star in a movie anymore without Academy recognition – but Kidman won’t win for Rabbit Hole. Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone) and Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine) get nods here for their work in indie films that strengthen their resumes for future voting seasons. Poor Annette Bening can’t seem to get nominated in a year where the award doesn’t belong to someone else, but at least she won’t be losing to Hillary Swank for a third time.
It’s Portman’s year. Aronofsky drama plus real-life pregnancy and engagement equals Oscar.
Should win: Natalie Portman
Will win: Natalie Portman
Pity the fool that missed Christian Bale’s performance as crack-addicted boxing trainer Dicky Ward in The Fighter. His embodiment of the irresponsible brother incarnate is just the highlight of a young career already brimming with strong roles (The Machinist, American Psycho). Geoffrey Rush turns in an astounding performance as speech tutor Lionel Logue in The King’s Speech, but it’s not likely he’ll surpass Bale this year.
Should win: Christian Bale
Will win: Christian Bale
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This is always the Academy’s “wild card” category. Past wins have delivered statuettes to true underdogs, some of whose careers all but halted after having won (Mira Sorvino, Marissa Tomei, Jennifer Hudson… the list goes on).
Jacki Weaver and Hallee Steinfeld phone in their nominations tonight. After years of tainting herself with oddities in Tim Burton films, Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech) will need to show more consistency to garner an award. The Academy loves Amy Adams (previously nominated for Junebug and Doubt). Too bad that the meatier supporting role in her film (The Fighter) belongs to Melissa Leo. Her portrayal of an overbearing mother/boxing manager makes Adams pale in comparison.
Should win: Melissa Leo
Will win: Melissa Leo
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Good job Joel and Ethan Cohen (as always) with True Grit. And Anne Rosellini did a masterful job getting into the minds of every sordid character in Winter’s Bone. Thank you, John Lasseter and Andrew Stanton for collectively bringing us smartly animated whoppers like Finding Nemo, Monsters Inc, and WALL-E (this year they get nominated with Toy Story 3). Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy adapted the material for 127 Hours and left us with nothing but James Franco hallucinating for an hour and a half; perhaps it was slim pickings for that fifth slot.
The Social Network is one of the most astute adaptations of material (in any form) in recent memory. Thank you for leaving television, Aaron Sorkin.
Should win: Aaron Sorkin
Will win: Aaron Sorkin
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Inception was a selfish display of pushing screenwriting into the realm of what-can-digital-effects-do-with-this-script territory. The Fighter's family saga is a worthy candidate, and The Kids are All Right does a nice job of blurring social family lines.
But the Oscar goes to David Seidler for undertaking what could have been a humdrum period piece and creating a mammoth drama about a simple stutter.
Should win: The King’s Speech
Will win: The King’s Speech
BEST DIRECTOR
There’s no stopping Fincher here. Known for pushing the cinematic envelope with films like Seven and Fight Club, 2008’s achievement with The Curious Case of Benjamin Button solidified him as an Oscar force with which to be reckoned. And The Social Network is his finest work by far, so far.
Should win: David Fincher
Will win: David Fincher
BEST PICTURE
It’s a close race between David Fincher’s The Social Network and Tom Hooper’s The King’s Speech. When the Best Picture winner actually deserves to win - not when it wins because Martin Scorsese or the Cohen brothers can’t be slighted one more time (The Departed, No Country for Old Men), the Academy likes to award current, groundbreaking, boundary-pushing films (note Slumdog Millionaire; 2009, and Crash; 2006). The Social Network should be a shoe in, right?
Wrong. Voters haven’t awarded a British period drama since 1998’s Shakespeare in Love, and Hooper just upset Fincher at the DGA’s for his achievement in directing. Only six times has the DGA winner not gone on to win the Oscar for Best Picture.
Should win: The Social Network
Will win: The King’s Speech
