THE OSCAR EDGE - WHO SHOULD WIN. WHO WILL.

BEST ACTOR

With his 5^th nomination, Jeff Bridges’ work has been recognized by the Academy for nearly 40 years. Solid turns in The Contender and Seabiscuit went unrewarded, but Bridges’ portrayal as a has-been country singer makes him a sure bet in this category. Freeman and Clooney were both recently honored with Oscars, in 2004 and 2005, respectively. International box office totals for (the Cohen brothers’) A Single Man came in at an abysmal $13 million – less people saw Firth’s performance in that film than adults waited in line to see New Moon. Unless The Hurt Locker upsets in several categories tomorrow night, Renner’s breakthrough role will sit second to Bridges.

Should win: Bridges

Will win: Bridges

BEST ACTRESS

I love it when actresses win Razzie’s (Worst Picture/Actor Awards) in the same year they’re nominated for Oscars. If I shut my eyes tight enough, I can still remember Halle Berry accepting her Razzie with her Best Actress Oscar in tow. We’ve watched Sandra Bullock portray the lovable girl-next-door repeatedly since 1994’s Speed, and this is as good as she gets, kids. Although Streep has been nominated a whopping 16 times (more than any other actor), she hasn’t gotten up to the podium to accept an Oscar since 1983’s Sophie’s Choice. Mirren won in this category four years ago with The Queen and won’t be honored for her work in this little-seen film. Mulligan’s British hailing won’t help her here, as it carried her to a Best Actress BAFTA Award, and Sidibe’s heartbreaking turn as a pregnant, illiterate teen has already won her all the awards she’ll see this season.

Should win: Streep

Will win: Bullock

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Every once in a while someone seemingly plucked from obscurity and placed into the open arms of Hollywood wins an Academy Award because they’re just that good (Marion Cotillard, Roberto Benigni). Give Christoph Waltz an Oscar. I haven’t loved to hate a villain as much as his Col. Hans Landa since Hopkins’ Hannibal Lecter. No one will touch Waltz – not Damon’s inspiring rugby captain, Plummer’s Tolstoy, Harrelson’s alcoholic nor even Tucci’s homicidal turn in The Lovely Bones.

Should win: Waltz

Will win: Waltz

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

History has proven favorites in this category shockingly remain in their seats as unlikely winners take the stage. Kate Hudson had swept all other ceremonies until Marcia Gay Harden claimed the statuette for Pollock in 2000. This is also the “not-guaranteed-to-solidify-your-career-Oscar” – remember Jennifer Hudson? What about Mira Sorvino? Didn’t think so. So when Mo’Nique is celebrating the culmination of a near perfect awards season with her Oscar tomorrow night, we will hope that her luck continues after Precious. Penelope just won here last year with Vicki Christina Barcelona, and is lucky to be nominated in what I would label an almost total disaster for director Rob Marshall. Critic’s darling Gyllenhaal wasn’t nominated for a single other award this season for Crazy Heart, and won’t win here. Kendrick’s scene-stealing wasn’t enough for her to gain awards momentum in 2009. Farmiga’s ballsy traveler in Up in the Air was the stand-out performance in a film filled with poignant turns by major Hollywood heavy hitters, but it’ll be impossible for her to overcome the Mo’Nique train, especially since this is the only award that Oscar will bestow on Precious.

Should win: Farmiga

Will win: Mo’Nique

BEST DIRECTOR

Like Best Picture, this field belongs to Cameron and Bigelow. Cameron’s achievement isn’t easily ignored; Avatar is a spectacle to behold in terms of technical advancements in filmmaking. It has become more than just a film, but a phenomenon reaching far beyond blockbuster epic expectations. And that could come back to bite Avatar on its nicely shaped, blue-skinned behind. Mr. Tarentino hasn’t won an Oscar for directing, but this is unfortunately not his year to rise above Cameron’s massive undertaking or Bigelow’s supreme storytelling. Reitman’s turn will come soon, I’m sure. With 2007’s Juno and this year’s Up in the Air, we can count on this 33 year-old to deliver again. Lee Daniels is lucky to be included here, edging out the Oscar-winning Cohen brothers for a nomination. Bigelow’s slice of life war portrait of American soldiers in Iraq was the most poignant 2 hours of film I saw last year. Be watchful for Avatar-weary Academy members who may feel inclined to vote against the grain.

Should win: Bigelow

Will win: Cameron

- Hillary Smotherman

*For Best Picture Prediction, go to http://rosebudisa.blogspot.com/2010/03/dont-take-it-personally.html

DON’T TAKE IT PERSONALLY

Whoever decides where Kathryn Bigelow will sit for tomorrow’s Oscar ceremony is in on “it.” The red carpet reporters who decide to skip interviewing Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey (producers of An Education) for a quick twenty seconds with James Cameron know “it,” as well.

There are obvious front-runners during awards season no matter what organization is holding the ceremony. You can expect surprises at the SAG Awards, where any actor who made enough last year to buy a used Dodge Neon can vote for his/her favorite candidate. You can expect the unexpected at the BAFTA’s (the British version of the Oscars), where a European dialect is sure to make any actor a voting favorite (congratulations, Colin Firth). Even the Golden Globe Awards, decided by a handful of critics and journalists, have proven to turn heads and bestow statuettes to people who go on to be left out of the Oscar race, entirely (you’re a lucky guy, Robert Downey, Jr.).

What gives you “it” at other ceremonies doesn’t mean much at the Oscars. There’s a formula to success here, and the Academy hardly ever deviates from it. The “it” is all political. It doesn’t matter if you deserve to win – do you deserve to win THIS TIME?

As they mark their ballots each year, stuffy Academy members take political inventory. Have you won before – how recently, and how many times (Meryl, Jack)? Are you overdue for an Oscar (Winslet, Freeman and Scorsese get my drift), having been nominated consistently without a win? Will you be skipped by Oscar this year because we know you’ll be back soon (Leo)? Does the Academy have to recognize you because this is probably the best work you’ll ever do (Julia Roberts, Halle Berry, Sandra Bullock…?). And why does the pity category never transfer over to Best Actor (poor Tom Cruise)?

This year Best Picture is a close race, because politics are slim in the category. It’s between James Cameron’s Avatar and Bigelow’s The Hurt Locker. If you bet a dollar on any of the other eight films in this category and got lucky, you could buy a fancy new refrigerator with your winnings. Cameron’s won in this category before, but it’s been 13 years and he doesn’t make films very often. To be quite honest, the hype that follows Avatar and the assurance it will win here is dangerous. Have we not learned our lesson in handicapping since Shakespeare in Love’s triumph over Saving Private Ryan, or the shock of Crash’s win in 2005?

Bigelow is new to this Oscar thing, and her film has been quietly gaining recognition since its release last summer. She recently won top honors at the Director’s Guild of America Awards. In 60 years, only six times has the DGA winner not gone on to collect Best Picture at the Oscars.

I’m just sayin’.

Should win: The Hurt Locker

Will win: Avatar

- Hillary Smotherman

* For predictions of Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and Director, go to http://rosebudisa.blogspot.com/2010/03/oscar-edge-who-should-win-who-will.html

WELL WORTH THE HYPE

Welcome to the most inescapable film of 2009. It’s difficult for any movie to live up to the hype that accompanies a budget in excess of $300 million, much less the 12 year hiatus from directing a feature film that James Cameron took after Titanic. But Avatar satisfies in every way. It is a visually mesmerizing miracle, reaching far beyond simply filling the slot of the quintessential Christmas blockbuster and providing inspiration for your pre-teen’s next video game obsession.

If you remember the way you felt when you first experienced dinosaurs in Jurassic Park or the bullet time slow motion martial arts in the Matrix films, your mind won’t rest for 2 ½ hours of Avatar. What Cameron’s done here is take another simple narrative and illustrate it with an unimaginably inventive, digitally painted backdrop unlike anything audiences have ever seen.

The story is set in the year 2154, where US Military forces are “on the brink of war.” Scientists on Earth have found the solution to the energy crisis in a rare mineral on Pandora, a moon light years away. The problem: the richest mineral-laden portion of land on Pandora is occupied by the Na’vi – a peaceful group of blue-skinned aliens who dutifully revere the natural world and will vehemently defend it, if threatened.

Another problem: How does one mine for a mineral on a planet whose air is toxic and un-breathable to humans? Create a genetic hybrid of human and Na’vi DNA that is controlled by the human counterpart and aptly get the job done – the Avatar. In an effort to communicate and learn from the Na’vi, a group of American scientists headed by Dr. Grace Augustine (Cameron veteran Sigourney Weaver) created the Avatar. Now the military will use them to infiltrate into Na’vi society for their own reasons.

After one of the scientific team members is murdered, his twin brother (same DNA) is chosen to step in and use his Avatar as part of a last ditch effort to “find a diplomatic solution” with the Na’vi. Enter Jake – a paraplegic marine played by Aussie actor Sam Worthington (who has thankfully perfected his American dialect since last summer’s Terminator: Salvation). Colonel Miles Quaritich (embodied with menacing precision by Stephen Lang) tells Jake if he can gain the trust of the Na’vi and get them to relocate, he’ll see to it Jake gets his “real legs” back. Our renegade hero has nothing to lose, and the race is on.

What can be said of the ensuing two hours? Magic movie-making at it’s best; A dazzling Cameron affair that eclipses Aliens, The Abyss, Terminator and even Titanic. Movie audiences are used to seeing films that are almost entirely computer-generated, at this point. Cameron has labeled the technique that brings Avatars to life “performance capture,” and dare I say that every cobalt tiger-striped Na’vi, each blinking golden eye, every forehead furrow and wrinkle that matches the actor’s proves that this technique has been perfected. And Pandora is a mouth-watering, spine-tingling adventure that doesn’t disappoint - including floating mountains, monsters that resemble rhino-dinosaurs and fluorescent weeping willow trees capable of memory and communication.

Jake (of course) falls for the hopelessly beautiful Neytiri (Zoe Saldana) who is ordered to teach him the ways of the Na’vi people. Neytiri tells Jake he has “a strong heart, no fear. But stupid. Ignorant. Like a child.” It naturally doesn’t take long for the two to fall in love as Jake continues to prove himself one of the most talented warriors her people have ever seen. As time ticks down and military forces are set to bulldoze Na’vi land, Quaritich asks Jake if he’s forgotten which team he’s playing for. And he has. “The strong prey on the weak, and no one does a thing,” Jake says.

Decide for yourself whether armed forces invading a territory that poses no foreseeable threat sounds familiar in today’s world. There are decisions to be made by these characters that may not be breaking narrative ground, but will make you invested in what they do. The story is one of redemption and moral choice. In the year 2154, good vs. evil is as simple as defending nature or destroying it. It’s as plain as “going up against gunships with bows and arrows.”

Go ahead and see Avatar with expectation. See it with all the uncertainty that comes along with the price of today’s $12 movie ticket. Watch with disdain as another love story is forced upon you, when what you wanted was action. Be hesitant to believe that tiger-striped Avatars are real. And then let it all melt away. Cameron waited 12 years to bring you something unique: a $300 million movie that delivers. Sit back and enjoy the hype. It’s colored in Oscar gold.


-Hillary Smotherman