THE OSCAR EDGE - WHO SHOULD WIN. WHO WILL.

BEST ACTOR

With his 5^th nomination, Jeff Bridges’ work has been recognized by the Academy for nearly 40 years. Solid turns in The Contender and Seabiscuit went unrewarded, but Bridges’ portrayal as a has-been country singer makes him a sure bet in this category. Freeman and Clooney were both recently honored with Oscars, in 2004 and 2005, respectively. International box office totals for (the Cohen brothers’) A Single Man came in at an abysmal $13 million – less people saw Firth’s performance in that film than adults waited in line to see New Moon. Unless The Hurt Locker upsets in several categories tomorrow night, Renner’s breakthrough role will sit second to Bridges.

Should win: Bridges

Will win: Bridges

BEST ACTRESS

I love it when actresses win Razzie’s (Worst Picture/Actor Awards) in the same year they’re nominated for Oscars. If I shut my eyes tight enough, I can still remember Halle Berry accepting her Razzie with her Best Actress Oscar in tow. We’ve watched Sandra Bullock portray the lovable girl-next-door repeatedly since 1994’s Speed, and this is as good as she gets, kids. Although Streep has been nominated a whopping 16 times (more than any other actor), she hasn’t gotten up to the podium to accept an Oscar since 1983’s Sophie’s Choice. Mirren won in this category four years ago with The Queen and won’t be honored for her work in this little-seen film. Mulligan’s British hailing won’t help her here, as it carried her to a Best Actress BAFTA Award, and Sidibe’s heartbreaking turn as a pregnant, illiterate teen has already won her all the awards she’ll see this season.

Should win: Streep

Will win: Bullock

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Every once in a while someone seemingly plucked from obscurity and placed into the open arms of Hollywood wins an Academy Award because they’re just that good (Marion Cotillard, Roberto Benigni). Give Christoph Waltz an Oscar. I haven’t loved to hate a villain as much as his Col. Hans Landa since Hopkins’ Hannibal Lecter. No one will touch Waltz – not Damon’s inspiring rugby captain, Plummer’s Tolstoy, Harrelson’s alcoholic nor even Tucci’s homicidal turn in The Lovely Bones.

Should win: Waltz

Will win: Waltz

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

History has proven favorites in this category shockingly remain in their seats as unlikely winners take the stage. Kate Hudson had swept all other ceremonies until Marcia Gay Harden claimed the statuette for Pollock in 2000. This is also the “not-guaranteed-to-solidify-your-career-Oscar” – remember Jennifer Hudson? What about Mira Sorvino? Didn’t think so. So when Mo’Nique is celebrating the culmination of a near perfect awards season with her Oscar tomorrow night, we will hope that her luck continues after Precious. Penelope just won here last year with Vicki Christina Barcelona, and is lucky to be nominated in what I would label an almost total disaster for director Rob Marshall. Critic’s darling Gyllenhaal wasn’t nominated for a single other award this season for Crazy Heart, and won’t win here. Kendrick’s scene-stealing wasn’t enough for her to gain awards momentum in 2009. Farmiga’s ballsy traveler in Up in the Air was the stand-out performance in a film filled with poignant turns by major Hollywood heavy hitters, but it’ll be impossible for her to overcome the Mo’Nique train, especially since this is the only award that Oscar will bestow on Precious.

Should win: Farmiga

Will win: Mo’Nique

BEST DIRECTOR

Like Best Picture, this field belongs to Cameron and Bigelow. Cameron’s achievement isn’t easily ignored; Avatar is a spectacle to behold in terms of technical advancements in filmmaking. It has become more than just a film, but a phenomenon reaching far beyond blockbuster epic expectations. And that could come back to bite Avatar on its nicely shaped, blue-skinned behind. Mr. Tarentino hasn’t won an Oscar for directing, but this is unfortunately not his year to rise above Cameron’s massive undertaking or Bigelow’s supreme storytelling. Reitman’s turn will come soon, I’m sure. With 2007’s Juno and this year’s Up in the Air, we can count on this 33 year-old to deliver again. Lee Daniels is lucky to be included here, edging out the Oscar-winning Cohen brothers for a nomination. Bigelow’s slice of life war portrait of American soldiers in Iraq was the most poignant 2 hours of film I saw last year. Be watchful for Avatar-weary Academy members who may feel inclined to vote against the grain.

Should win: Bigelow

Will win: Cameron

- Hillary Smotherman

*For Best Picture Prediction, go to http://rosebudisa.blogspot.com/2010/03/dont-take-it-personally.html

ANOTHER SAVORY EPHRON CONCOCTION

I could spend a full day at Meryl Streep’s feet thanking her for being an actress. I could spend a subsequent day thanking her directors for convincing her to sign on and play roles so methodically that the actress just seems to melt away. With Julie & Julia, Nora Ephron brings us a delightful, feel good film - due in no small part to a fabulous cast and pitch perfect acting.

Julie & Julia tells the stories of two women, separated by space and time, who are sick and tired of their mundane lives. Julie (Amy Adams) is an average modern day New Yorker about to turn 30. After giving up writing her novel, she works a dead-end job answering phones for a government agency and longs to be more than “just a person in a cubicle.” Her refuge is in food; she comes home and cooks spectacular dinners for her husband.

How does a failed novelist/foodie escape boredom and add spice to her life? Start a blog about cooking so you can write about your true passion and be your own “publisher.” Julie takes her husband(Chris Messina)'s advice and challenges herself to cook every recipe in her idol(Julia Child)'s cookbook in one year and countdown the progress on her blog.

You can’t help rooting for Julie, whose social life beyond the cubicle is defined by cobb salad social lunches with pompous friends who demean her secretarial job and grab breadsticks out of her mouth. Adams hasn’t mis-tepped once since her star-making turn as Leonardo DiCaprio’s finance in Catch Me if You Can. Her comic vulnerability is a sheer joy to watch. She’s a relatable movie star – not intimidatingly beautiful, and brings an honesty and self-deprecating humor to every role she takes.

Ephron blesses us with a fantastic dual-plot that oscillates between following Julie’s challenge and watching Julia Child’s early struggle to become a chef. Before she pioneered American French cooking, Child was just the wife of a diplomat who pondered hat-making so that she would have something “to do.” Because she loved eating French food, why not learn how to cook it? Meryl’s Julia is the laughing stock of the Cordon Bleu in Paris before she proves herself a worthy competitor to her male G.I. classmates chopping onions faster than them and flipping pancake-like eggs over in a pan.

Julie nearly loses her job and her husband when she skips work over recipes gone wrong and throws tantrums in the kitchen. Julia gains the respect of fellow chefs and aspiring cookbook authors who ask her to sign on and help them write a French cookbook for everyday housewives. Julie begins to experience success as her blog becomes the 3^rd most popular and both women find themselves gaining acknowledgement where it’s deserved.

If not for any other reason, go see Julie & Julia to witness Streep’s 16^th attempt at Oscar. She flawlessly delivers Julia’s over-the-top voice, and with every awkward sway of the upper body to and fro as Child, Streep brings to life a woman very much at ease with herself (and her 6’2’’ frame) and a talent for something that was quite laughable in the 1950’s.

This film is strongly backed by supporting roles, including another stand-out performance by Stanley Tucci (Paul Child). Both Tucci and Messina are fantastic at playing the real doting housewives as they support their women while they embark on soul-searching journeys.

This isn’t a romantic comedy, folks. But there’s lots of love to spread around. Yes, Julie and Julia are both nurtured by loving husbands at home. But in the end, it is the love from within (yuck, I know), stemming from self-discovery and accomplishment that warms the heart here. Julia and Julia, melted nicely together like their love for butter and devotion to learning to bone a duck, show us that it’s worth your time to pursue what you love to do. Is there any message better?

-Hillary Smotherman